Two reactions from India to Obama’s Cairo speech

M.J.Akbar is a leading Indian journalist, editor and author. Arif Mohammed Khan has been in politics for decades and served in the Union government.

M.J. Akbar, Reaching out to a Brotherhood, Khaleej Times, June 8, 2009.

Arif Mohammed Khan, Not a Monolithic Community, Outlookindia.com, June 10, 2009.

Posted by Swarna Rajagopalan on June 11, 2009. Respond »

Interview with Koteswar Rao, Maoist leader in India

The leader of India’s Maoist rebels expresses support for jihadi attacks, excepting the attack on a commuter railway station in Mumbai on 26/11.

Snigdhendhu Bhattacharya, ‘We support Islamic terrorism,” Hindustan Times, June 9, 2009.

Posted by Swarna Rajagopalan on June 10, 2009. Respond »

Indonesia and Malaysia almost come to blows over disputed territorial waters

Rising tensions between Indonesia and Malaysia over the disputed Ambalat maritime area off East Kalimantan have brought the two neighbours close to open conflict in the past two weeks, highlighting once again the paucity of formal mechanism of dispute resolution in the ASEAN region.

Malaysia claims part of the oil-rich Ambalat region based on a 1979 maritime chart, while Indonesia bases its claim on the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which states that the area belongs to Indonesia.

Leaders in both country have thankfully stressed they wish to see dialogue leading to a formal resolution of the overlapping claims. But as with all bilateral issues that pose a threat to peace in the ASEAN region, the problem is not the willingness to talk, but the lack of access to proper mediation of disputes. 

It seems that no sooner than the threat of conflict appears in this region, two things generally happen: First, tensions immediately rise as nationalist drums are beaten on both sides, there usually follows a flurry of contacts and the hurried exchange of visits by high officials as attempts are made to defuse confrontation that could lead to armed conflict. 

Second, in subsequent bilateral negations much is achieved in terms of finding ways to avoid an armed clash, but rarely is a formal a settlement of the dispute achieved.  One of the few things the two sides tend to agree upon is the need to keep out meddling third parties to avoid internationalizing the issue.

Yet it is precisely this reluctance to engage impartial third party help that these boundary disputes, such Ambalat and also the Thai-Cambodian border dispute over Preah Viharn, which did result in armed conflict earlier this year, tend to fester unresolved. 

In the case of Ambalat we can expect to see a flurry of bilateral contacts as the two sides seek to find a better way to avoid clashes in the region whilst each maintains the legitimacy of their claim. In other words, as is so often the case, they will seek to manage, rather than resolve the conflict so neither side loses face and risks a domestic political backlash. 

It’s not that the region isn’t equipped with mechanisms for mediating disputes.  Member states can always refer disputes among themselves to the ASEAN High Council, a forum for mediation that has never once been convened in the regional association’s more than 40 year history. This sort of spat is precisely what the ASEAN Secretary General should be empowered to use his good offices to help resolve. Doing so would give substantive meaning to ASEAN’s agreed development of a security community.

Posted by Michael Vatikiotis on June 10, 2009. Respond »

In the News: New Sanctions on North Korea

With new sanctions on North Korea imminent (see the draft resolution here) as a result of the May 25 nuclear test, it is perhaps timely to take a look back at the effect of previous sanctions.

One Asia Security Initiative participant, Marcus Noland from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, published a paper on this topic last December. Noland found “no evidence” that the October 2006 nuclear test and subsequent UN Security Council Resolution “had any effect on North Korea’s trade” with China or South Korea. He concludes that, “if sanctions are to deter behavior in the future, they will have to be much more enthusiastically implemented.”

Of course, there are other views on and measures of the efficacy of previous sanctions. We invite our readers to send us their research and thoughts on this topic through the “Letters to the Editor” function below. We will compile and post some of the best. Please include your name, as we do not normally post anonymous comments.

Posted by Matthew Shannon Stumpf on June 10, 2009. Respond »

Countering Terror: India Refurbishes Military Preparedness

Indian security establishments have been preparing for any terror incursions from two of its volatile neighborhoods, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The threat from LTTE remnants or jihadist from Pakistan that might infiltrate into India through the western coast remains a top priority for security establishment, so also the threat from Taliban intruding into bordering states through the western sector.

The perception of the Taliban making inroads to India has increased since December 2008, when Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mahsud vowed to fight alongside the Pakistan army if a conflict broke out between India and Pakistan. The verbal threat has since been underlined by the Taliban’s eastward movement inside Pakistan, from its bases in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) to the city of Lahore, close to the Indian border. Recognizing the emergence of the Taliban forces as a grave security threat, the Indian military has finished a three day exercise code named ‘Hind Shakti’ to check the operational readiness of its elite Kharga Corps (known after its Sword emblem) in southwest Punjab in early May 2009. The exercise involved India’s premier corps conducting what the Indian Army described as a blitzkrieg type armored incursion, emphasizing rapid penetration into enemy territory. The three day operational exercise at the Indo-Pakistan border was aimed at any Taliban or al-Qaeda threat emanating from Pakistan. (For more on the threat, fear and India’s preparedness, See, my recent article in Terrorism Monitor titled, “Indian Army Reacts to the Taliban Threat”(June 04, 2009, Jamestown Foundation).

Mumbai terror events which witnessed Jihadi intrusion from Pakistan using marine routes and the just concluded Sri Lankan civil war that raised the possibility of remaining (Tamil) tigers infiltrating through sea routes, Indian government has approved the new coastal security plan under which a major seaborne military exercise code named Rasta Roko (Blocking the Route) is underway in Arabian Sea. This three day exercise (June 8- 10), is going to validate steps being taken to boost the country’s coastal security, especially after intelligence inputs about a possible Mumbai type terror attack by Pakistan based terrorists on Indian soil. This ongoing maritime exercise would be the biggest ever covering large areas including Jakhau (Gujarat) to Kanyakumari (Tamil Nadu). Exercise Rasta Roko involving the Indian Navy, Coast Guard, state coastal police and marine departments, looks at providing much needed safeguard to vital energy and security installations like ports, refinery, nuclear plants and oil rigs from terror attacks.

Posted by Animesh Roul on June 9, 2009. Respond »