Posted by Chu Shulong on December 2, 2009. Filed under China, United States.

The Development of the U.S. and China, and the World Order

This post is by Chu Shulong. It is excerpted from the article “The U.S., China and the International Order” published in the journal “Contemporary International Relations” in August 2009.

In the early of the 21st century, the world and world order are in the process of profound changes. On the one hand, there is almost a consensus that the center of world power is in transition.  Various powers fall and rise in turns, the terms G8, G13, G20, G4 (BRICs) and G2 came into our vision, leaving us in a daze. On the other hand, the influence and impact of power, in the context of international politics, economy, society and their interactions, is obviously declining. The sole superpower, which used to be in prominent position, often feels powerless in international affairs, as it can’t solve any international problem alone. The development of world order is still based on the distribution and balance of power; however, the influence and status of coercive power itself is shrinking. On the contrary, the impact of other elements of power is expanding.  A new and non-traditional model for understanding international relations is on its way.

1. Changes and Development of U.S. Power and its International Role

In the 1980s and the early 1990s, the discussion on “American Decline” prevailed. Many people believed that the decline of American power was inevitable. Japan would become the world champion in many ways, while the U.S. would fall to second place.

Since the mid and late 1990s, with the fast development of IT and the internet industry, the U.S. has begun to enter a high-speed development era, the “Clinton Boom,” overtaking the theory of “American Decline.” Instead, policies of “American Imperialism” and “American Unipolarization” came into force in 21 Century. U.S. leaders and politicians such as Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, believe that the military, economic and technological strength of the U.S. are unmatched, and that it would be inconceivable if the U.S. doesn’t use its prestige and power to change the world. This thinking is one of the most important reasons why the U.S. launched the Iraq War.

However, the Iraq War made the international political status and influence of the U.S. decline seriously, as manifested in two ways. First, the Iraq war showed the limitations of U.S. military strength and capability; the superpower itself, the world’s largest military power, was not omnipotent. Second, the Iraq War undermined U.S. soft power, dirtied the standards of “Democracy,” “Rule of Law,” and “Human Rights” which are advocated by the U.S. The status of American democracy as a model, standard-bearer, leader and advocate suffered a heavy blow. Furthermore, the U.S. subprime and financial Crisis started inearly 2007, exposing serious deficiencies and problems in the U.S. financial and economic systems, and broke the myth of the U.S. market economy model.

The Iraq War and the Financial Crisis have changed the United States’ international political and economic status seriously, however, the fundamental power of the U.S. has not undergone any significant changes. The U.S. is still the world’s most powerful country. The economic size, science and technology, military strength of the U.S. are far ahead, and the U.S. still takes the first place among Western batuibs.  Its soft power, from education, fast food, movies, music, clothing and life style, lead as usual.  No country can be compared with the United States.

2. Trends in China’s National Strength and Status

Right now, China’s rise is one of the most important factors when we analyze the world’s development. China is a potential superpower in the world in the near future. However, when carefully reviewing the past 30 years’ of development history in China, it can be concluded that China could grow up to be a superpower only in economic size, but not a comprehensive superpower approaching the United States.

China’s achievements in the past 30 years are world-shaking, beyond everybody’s expectations, particularly economically.  The size of China’s economy is likely to catch up and even surpass the United States’ in the next 20 years, if China’s GDP growth rate can stay at 7-8 percent per year. However, in the areas of economic quality, science and technology, military strength, international politics and cultural influence, China is far behind the U.S., decades of years are needed to bridge the gap.  In this regard, it is unlikely that China will become a superpower, in a comprehensive way.

Futhermore, China’s development faces challenges and difficulties from both domestic and overseas. To take the challenge of national unification as only one example, China is the sole country confronted with much more severe ethnic and race problems than any other major power in the world. There are the splitting factors represented by the “Three Forces” (Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang), challenges that involve a large portion of China’s territory, and undermine the national security and unification of China. Meanwhile, China’s unique characteristics, such as large population, length and breadth of land, regional and social unbalance, environmental pressure, etc., will restrict China’s development for a long time. Therefore, the Chinese government must concentrate on maintaining domestic stability rather than focusing on international affairs. Besides, China’s traditional philosophy and culture are introverted and inward-looking, which constrain China’s involvement in international affairs. The culture, philosophy and traditions of the Chinese people are difficult to change for the future.

3. Development Trends in Europe, Japan, and Russia

As the world’s biggest integrative group, the EU as a whole has economic power and global influence, as well as science & technology and social development, at the first level, comparable to the United States’. However, as individual countries, from the United Kingdom, to France, Germany, and Italy, their strength and international status are on the decline. We can see the results easily in the global economic rankings of those countries. It’s obvious that if the Europe wants to maintain its status and impacts in the international arena, unification seems to be the right way to go, but this way is very bumpy. Although the EU is expanding, the political, diplomatic and military unification are still slow. It will be some time before the EU behaves like one nation and speaks as one.

Japan, from 1990s until now, has generally been in its “stagnation period,” and there is no sign that Japan will step out of the period. In the last 20 years, Japan’s domestic situation has not been positive, and there are some potential ongoing problems, such as the difficulties in political reform, depopulation, an aging population, the lack of a driving force for development, and more. In fact, Japan’s economic strength, technical capability and international status have not experienced a deep slump; however, compared with other countries’ fast development, Japan has lagged behind.

Russia is not a world superpower anymore, but it is still one of the world’s big powers in terms of comprehensive national strength. The domestic political stability and economic development of Russia are primarily based on Vladimir Putin’s personal ability and reputation, as well as the soaring price of resources and energy in the international market, instead of political system and economic structural reform. This pattern is not sustainable, and is not stable. As a matter of fact, Russia has been reduced to a third-rate country in view of economic strength, at the same level as India, Brazil and Mexico, with a GDP of one trillion U.S. dollars or so. Economic strength is the fundamental aspect of national power which determines one country’s overall strength and status.

4. The Evolution of International Power Structure and International Order

Power is still the cornerstone of the international system. However, it is not the sole critical factor anymore; on the contrary, its influence is declining gradually. Globalization, interdependence, norms, institutions, values and other non-power factors are new bases for the construction of the international system and order. There are two reasons for this.

First, unipolarization and bipolarization are being replaced by multipolarization. Looking to the future, even if the world economic development and international system remain unipolar or bipolar, the unipolar and bipolar structures can’t dominate the world as they did in the past centuries. This is because the international system and order are mostly determined by the overall trends of globalization and interdependence, as well as by values, opinion, institutions and governance, rather than by measures of national power. Multipolarization means a wider distribution of power, but it also means the diversification of values, opinion, norms and institutions. The democratization of international relations, the world’s diversification, globalization, and interdependence are the signs of the human society’s democratization and development.

Secondly, the impact and influence of coercive power is declining. Coercive power itself cannot solve problems alone, even though power is still an important, basic and fundamental factor. Soft power, an important component of power, plays an increasing role in the international arena. The essence of soft power is the force which makes people be willing to accept and follow; coercive power alone can’t change a person, not to mention a nation.

As time goes by, the international community is less ready to accept coercive power, and no longer worships coercive power, no matter who the coercive power is.  The application of power has influence and significance only when it is rooted in opinion, values, institutions, and norms. Therefore, the world today is becoming more a world of values, culture, opinion, norms and institutions, than a world defined by power. The more important trends are those of globalization, interdependence, and the tide of democratization of international relations through world multi-polarization and institutionalization. These trends demonstrate a new organizing concept for international relations, and are the main characteristics of the international system and the new world order.