Posted by Catharin Dalpino on November 18, 2009. Filed under Special Report: President Obama's November 2009 Trip to Asia , Regional Organizations, Southeast Asia, United States.

Singapore Read-Out: US-ASEAN Summit – A Credible First Lap

by Catharin Dalpino

The 28-point, all-good-things joint statement of the US-ASEAN Leaders Meeting in Singapore on Sunday reflected a successful lift-off of a new dialogue process. It documented thirty years of episodic relations between ASEAN and the United States, and marked out new areas for cooperation. In the latter category, President Obama invited the members of the ASEAN Inter-Governmental Commission on Human Rights to the United States in 2010, and proposed a ministerial-level meeting on energy next year as well.

Such statements are negotiated well in advance of the meeting, and the drama is often in small details and subtle shadings. ASEAN leaders welcomed the shift in US policy for Burma that allowed engagement with the government – personified at the meeting by the participation of Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein – and joined the United States in cautioning that 2010 elections in Burma “must be conducted in a free, fair, inclusive and transparent manner in order to be credible to the international community.” However, the statement lacked mention of NLD leader Aung Sang Suu Kyi, much less a request for her release – that would fall to Obama. It was the diplomatic equivalent of a draw.

Some aspects of the statement were more subtle but important nevertheless. Nuclear non-proliferation is a renewed priority in the West in view of developments in North Korea and Iran, and it offered the ASEAN leaders an opportunity to laud the concept of a Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone, a proposal that had met with strong US resistance when it first emerged in the 1980s. For its part, Washington was able to echo Obama’s speech in Tokyo last week, with the description of a shared vision of a regional architecture that is “inclusive,” code for a broader Asian-Pacific community rather than one more narrowly limited to Asia that would exclude the United States. 

The joint statement raised three questions, if only in the breech. There was expected praise for US-ASEAN economic cooperation to date, but the statement lacked the rancor visited upon the United States in the APEC forum for perceived protectionism and foot-dragging on free trade agreements. It was also silent on the Obama announcement in Tokyo that it would begin negotiations on US accession to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Many trade economists support the TPP, but it likely to encounter political problems. It would appear to set aside previous US efforts to negotiate free trade agreements with Thailand and Malaysia; although there is little talk of reviving the US-Thailand FTA at this time, Kuala Lumpur had hoped to bring its negotiations with Washington to fruition in the near future. With its incremental approach, the TPP is not likely to produce an umbrella US-ASEAN FTA, as many of ASEAN’s external partners have done. Lastly, it may meet with resistance from Congress. Just hours after Obama’s speech in Tokyo, some Congressional leaders reacted sharply to the idea of joining a trade regime that would incorporate Vietnam as an early member.

A second issue is regularizing and institutionalizing the US-ASEAN Leaders Meeting. President Obama has invited the ASEAN leaders to the United States for a second round,  but that does not yet establish a schedule. Ideally, ASEAN would like a summit mechanism which brings the President of the United States to Southeast Asia once a year. The rotation of the APEC chair will not allow that – the 2010 meeting will be held in Japan, and in the United States the following year. However, if the United States enters the East Asian Summit, a US-ASEAN meeting could piggy-back on that yearly event. At present, the EAS is anchored in Southeast Asia and hosted by that year’s ASEAN chair.

Lastly, as expected, the US-ASEAN Leaders Meeting did not take up the current Thai-Cambodian dispute as an agenda item. However, the occasion was an opportunity for backroom mediation on the margins of the meeting. Sources indicate that the primary player in that regard at the Singapore meeting was Indonesian President Yudhyono, who is expected to pursue reconciliation between the two countries quietly for the next several weeks.

Such informal diplomacy is occasionally effective, but its ad hoc nature is often discounted in the West as doing little to help ASEAN develop a permanent mechanism for dispute resolution. But what many Westerners perceive as a weakness some ASEAN leaders consider a strength, one that offers extra room to maneuver. To date, however, this concept lacks a common definition. In 1998, when Thailand chaired ASEAN, then-Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan suggested that ASEAN move from the principle of non-interference to a nuanced but more active “flexible engagement.” The proposal was formally rejected at the time but ASEAN has occasionally acceded to the idea in principle, as in 2006 when Myanmar was persuaded by the other members to forego the ASEAN chair. Surin is now Secretary-General of ASEAN, and uniquely positioned to reformulate and reintroduce “flexible engagement.” With elections planned in Burma in 2010, there may be little time to waste.

READER COMMENTS

From Zelda DT Soriano:

Your insights are enlightening. Can you say something about the climate change talks, if there has been any exchange of words, during the US-ASEAN summit? Thanks!

Catharin Dalpino responds:

The US-ASEAN Leaders Meeting joint statement did have a bullet point on climate change, which included a statement that the United State and ASEAN would “work closely to ensure the success of the United Nations Climate Change Conference…” and also that the parties recognized the severe effects of climate change in the (Southeast Asia) region.  However, no new initiatives emerged from the meeting on this score, and it appears that economic issues were a more intense focus.  Additionally, since the Copenhagen conference is a global one, in the lead-up to that event all eyes are on greater powers and their domestic emissions policies.  Climate change isn’t a peripheral issue in US-Southeast Asian relations, but neither is it at the top of the list at this time.  However, there appears to be room in the Obama administration’s relations with ASEAN to make it a more significant factor.”