Posted by Catharin Dalpino on February 1, 2010. Filed under Indonesia.

This afternoon the White House announced that President Obama will travel to Indonesia in the second half of March.  Apart from the symbolic importance of visiting the largest Muslim-majority country in the world, which also happens to be his boyhood home,  Obama will join President Susilo Bambang Yudyhono for the formal launch of the US-Indonesia Comprehensive Partnership.  The Partnership is still a work in progress, but it is expected to focus on six areas of policy: expanding bilateral education and exchanges; regional democracy and reform; advancing cooperation on global climate change; trade and food security, investment and business, and bilateral security cooperation. It is not clear how many of the initial programs that undergird the partnership will be new.  Governments are sometimes given to pouring old wine into new bottles when they attempt to redefine a relationship, not least when heads of state are concerned.  However, even rearranging the elements of the current relationship may have merit, if it moves the perception of US-Indonesian relations beyond the recent past, when Congressional sanctions on the Indonesian military set the tone.

The other stops on Obama’s March trip will be an address to US service personnel on Guam, en route to Asia, and a visit to Australia to mark the 70th anniversary of US-Australian relations.  Beyond the ceremonial aspects of the visit, the Obama-Rudd agenda is expected to include the global economic recovery; clean energy and climate change; non-proliferation and Afghanistan.

As with all announcements of Presidential trips, this one unleashes speculation on the administration’s priorities in the region and future trips in Obama’s 2010 Asia itinerary. Presidential scheduling is an intensely political process and one that can spark bureaucratic rivalry as well.  In November Obama will travel to Yokohama for the APEC Leaders Meeting, and there are strong expectations that he will include Beijing and Seoul in the trip as well.  The hope that Obama will travel to India this year, on the heels of Prime Minister Singh’s state visit last November, is palpable in Washington’s South Asian affairs community, but no dates have been announced as yet

Southeast Asia specialists and policymakers are left with a greater number of unanswered questions.  Obama’s trip to Indonesia will mark his second visit to a Southeast Asian maritime state that has significant security relations with the United States but is not a treaty ally (the first being Singapore for the APEC meeting last November).  Are Thailand and the Philippines, Washington’s two treaty allies in the region, still central to US security in Southeast Asia?  Is it prudent to visit the Philippines in an election year or Thailand while the political crisis continues, albeit at a calmer level than at any time since 2006?  What of Vietnam’s invitation to Obama to visit Hanoi this year for the second round of the US-ASEAN Summit?  Southeast Asia watchers will analyze the venue for that meeting to determine if the administration is committed to a permanent US-ASEAN summit process or will simply rely on convenience, piggybacking meetings on the backs of larger regional summits where possible. 

With one puzzle piece in place, jockeying for the others will only intensify. 

Reader Commentary by Jim Wallar:

Agree with the puzzle analogy—but a three dimensional one with bilateral and regional elements. China, Japan, Korea, and India play both dimensions. The President could do so by driving twenty minutes from the Presidential Place in Jakarat to the ASEAN Secretariat.  Reaching out to 10 countries in one visit is very elegant. Would this detract from the bilateral event? Would this highlight Indonesia’s leadership in ASEAN? There is certain to be debates in the planning circles. Under the US-ASEAN Partnership the USG demonstrated its innovation by appointing the first Ambassador to ASEAN.  A Head of State visit to ASEAN would again demonstrate US statesmanship. The other pieces of the puzzle remain in play, but its multidimensional character would become even more interesting.

Response by Catherin Dalpino:

I agree that Obama should and easily could visit the ASEAN Secretariat when he is in Jakarta - I believe that would make him the first US President to do so and would build on Secretary Clinton’s visit to the Secretariat when she visited Jakarta in 2009.  ASEAN Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan is scheduled to visit Washington in mid-February, and this is something he might bring up in his discussions with the administration, although I would not be surprised to hear that it was already in the works.

It would be more complicated to organize a second round of the US-ASEAN Summit at the Secretariat, however.  It might be interpreted as a slight to Vietnam, the 2010 ASEAN Chair, although Hanoi could certainly chair the Summit at the Secretariat, underscoring that it was being held on ASEAN “territory.”. Indeed, in December 2008 an ASEAN Summit was held in Jakarta although Thailand was the ASEAN chair that year with Bangkok chairing the meeting.  With Thailand having just emerged from the “yellow shirt” seizure of the Bangkok International Airport in November, it seemed prudent to hold the Summit elsewhere. 

These features to underscore an ASEAN rather than Indonesia-led meeting would be important.  Some ASEAN leaders are beginning to tire of US references to Indonesia’s potential leadership role in the regon.  But ASEAN leaders are pragmatic above all and want most to see the summit process with the United States become a regular and permanent feature.  With careful choreography, they might agree to an unconventional arrangement to take advantage of Obama’s trip to Indonesia.