Posted on December 9, 2009 in North Korea, Policy Research, South Korea.

The East Asia Institute held its fifth Smart Talk event in Seoul November 20, featuring Joel Wit of Columbia University. The session focused on “Four Scenarios for a Nuclear North Korea.”

Read the report here. Wit finds:

Two key factors will shape the resolution of the nuclear issue. The first is the stability of the regime in North Korea and the second is the political situation in the United States. Both are hard to determine and identify as to which direction they are heading. To cope with these difficulties, Wit suggested that any engagement with North Korea must be supported by a strong underlying political base that is durable and concluded before leadership succession in Pyongyang complicates reaching an agreement. Above all, this approach will require innovative thinking on devising new negotiating strategies, particularly on the tough and sensitive issues like proliferation and human rights. In this way, solutions to the North Korean nuclear crisis can be found and result in a more optimistic future.”